Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective     

Vicki Duscha  Alexandra Denishchenkova  Jakob Wachsmuth 《Climate Policy》2019,19(2):161-174

Limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C is an integral part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these aims, cumulative global carbon emissions after 2016 should not exceed 940 – 390?Gt of CO₂ (for the 2°C target) and 167 – ?48?Gt of CO₂ (for the 1.5°C target) by the end of the century. This paper analyses the EU’s cumulative carbon emissions in different models and scenarios (global models, EU-focused models and national carbon mitigation scenarios). Due to the higher reductions in energy use and carbon intensity of the end-use sectors in the national scenarios, we identify an additional mitigation potential of 26–37 Gt cumulative CO₂ emissions up to 2050 compared to what is currently included in global or EU scenarios. These additional reductions could help to both reduce the need for carbon dioxide removals and bring cumulative emissions in global and EU scenarios in line with a fairness-based domestic EU budget for a 2°C target, while still remaining way above the budget for 1.5°C.

Key policy insights

• Models used for policy advice such as global integrated assessment models or EU models fail to consider certain mitigation potential available at the level of sectors.

• Global and EU models assume significant levels of CO₂ emission reductions from carbon capture and storage to reach the 1.5°C target but also to reach the 2°C target.

• Global and EU model scenarios are not compatible with a fair domestic EU share in the global carbon budget either for 2°C or for 1.5°C.

• Integrating additional sectoral mitigation potential from detailed national models can help bring down cumulative emissions in global and EU models to a level comparable to a fairness-based domestic EU share compatible with the 2°C target, but not the 1.5°C aspiration.

  相似文献   

从巴黎到卡托维兹：全球气候治理中的统一和分裂     

朱松丽 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(2):206-211

《巴黎协定》达成之后的实施细则谈判从一开始就面临各种挑战。尽管如此,卡托维兹气候大会基本完成了实施细则的磋商,通过统一规则的制定夯实了基于规则的气候治理框架,为“自下而上”的松散协定注入了更多规则绑定强制性色彩,提升了协定的法律地位。会议也见证了气候世界的分裂,包括主要缔约方立场的退化、谈判集团的分化重组、利益集团的博弈、对科学报告的分歧等,从而使关于力度的磋商没有实质进展。从巴黎到卡托维兹的谈判路程表明治理全球化、治理效率以及国家主权之间暂时存在“不可能三角”。未来的谈判应促进从规则到行动的转变。  相似文献   

巴黎城市规划布局规律及特点研究     

唐亦功 《世界地理研究》2007,16(1):46-51

本文在对巴黎城市布局实地考察的基础上，对城市布局规律及特点进行了较为系统和深入的研究。得出巴黎城市布局的主要特点：（1）选择数个（一般为3个）或在高度或在体量上具有一定特点的建筑物作为整个建筑群的主体性建筑统领全区，使该区内其他的建筑物围绕着这些主体标志规则布局。这就使得上述建筑群的布局大多呈现出“三段式”的典型形式。（2）各区内的建筑物多依其地形、道路的走向规则布局。各建筑物间的组合形式既有方形．长方形，也有梯形、三角形以及不规则的四边形等形状。且各组间多呈闭合状态。（3）在建筑群的中心轴线地带内，均为绿化园林区（带），各建筑群的布局均主题突出、清晰明确。（4）城市的各交通枢纽（交叉路口）均以城市广场作为其基本的布局形式。各交通枢纽间均以宽阔、笔直的林荫大道相连，且每条大街都通向一处纪念性的建筑物。  相似文献   

Non-scaled analogue modelling of AMS development during viscous flow: A simulation on diapir-like structures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zuzana Kratinov  Prokop Zvada  Franti&#x;ek Hrouda  Karel Schulmann 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(1-2):51

Development of magnetic fabric within a diapirically ascending columnar body was investigated using non-scaled analogue model made of plaster of Paris containing small amount of fine-grained homogeneously mixed magnetite. The apparatus for the modelling consists of a manual squeezer with calibrated spring and a Perspex container. Set of weak coloured layers at the bottom of the container was forced to intrude overlying fine-grained sand through a hole in a board attached to the squeezer. The development of AMS fabric is correlated with complex flow pattern indicated by coloured and originally horizontal plaster layers. Strongly constrictional and vertical fabric in the base and in the lower domain of the diapir resulting from convergent and upwards flows is overprinted by subhorizontal oblate fabrics due to vertical flattening and initial divergent flow in the apical parts. The measured AMS fabrics are compared with natural examples of magmatic stocks and dykes.  相似文献   

Archaeomagnetic evidence for the age of a Roman pottery kiln from Calahorra (Spain)     

J. M. Parés  R. De Jonge  J. O. Pascual  A. Bermúdez  C. J. Tovar  R. A. Luezas  N. Maestro 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,112(3):533-537

  相似文献   

Variabilité spatiale du signal palynologique dans le bassin de Paris à la limite Dogger–Malm     

Vincent Huault  Marcel Élie  Régine Ruck-Mosser 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(4):401-409

The drilling of new cores performed for ANDRA in eastern France allowed us to compare palynological data between central and eastern parts of the Paris Basin. Such a comparison, which was also motivated by the existence of a set of geochemical data in contradiction with the first palynological results, showed a spatial differentiation in palynological record from the Oxfordian. Such a palynological signal could result from overlapping of both local and global signals, the latter being in connection with the contemporaneous opening of proto-Atlantic Ocean. It could also be of major palaeogeographic and palaeoclimatic interest. To cite this article: V. Huault et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).  相似文献   

Contemporary Geographies of Indigenous Rights and Interests in Rural Australia     

JOCELYN DAVIES 《The Australian geographer》2003,34(1):19-45

More than half of Australia's lands and coastal regions are now encompassed within the boundaries of native title claims. The claims and the 'native title communities' who have lodged them are shaping a new geography of Australia's lands and seascapes. These communities derive from traditional ownership and thus have a different, and more fundamentally authoritative, basis to the indigenous 'residential communities' whose representative organisations are the mechanism through which governments have promoted indigenous self-management and which dominate in public affairs. Recognition of native title provides some opportunities for indigenous people to negotiate for benefits which will address their marginalised and economically dependent status but these are limited by the protection given to non-indigenous interests and are often proving they can be very difficult to realise. Overcoming indigenous marginalisation, promoting co-existence between indigenous and other Australians, and securing sustainability in rural regions requires that institutional reform goes beyond legally bounded interpretations of where native title does and does not still exist. Rebuilding indigenous institutions for governance of country is fundamental to achieving necessary change but political will and resources to support the process are critically lacking.  相似文献   

Runoff and interrill erosion on sandy soils under cultivation in the western Paris basin: mechanisms and an attempt at measurement     

Jean Pierre Larue 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(9):971-989

Measurements made on different scales, such as rainfall simulations on 1 m² and 20 m² experimental plots and water sampling at the outlet of a watershed, enable the analysis of the mechanisms of pluvial erosion and therefore the importance of runoffs and soil losses in the hilly and sandy parts of the western Paris basin. Interrill erosion accounts for slow transfer of materials towards the lower part of plots and slopes. The overland flow caused by restructuring of the surface Tertiary and Cenomanian soils erodes some 150 to 200 kg ha^?1 during the month following sowing. Only a part of these deposits reach the river, which carries away less than 50 kg ha^?1 each month. Interrill erosion makes slopes still more uneven, fills in valley bottoms, and so paves the way to catastrophic erosion, which scoops out rises in the ground and colluvial deposits in the lower part of slopes and valley bottoms. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Credited forest carbon sinks: how the cost reduction is allocated among countries and sectors     

Johanna Pohjola  Leena Kerkelä  Raisa Mäkipää 《Climate Policy》2003,3(4):445-461

Forest carbon sinks have been included in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the mechanisms for mitigating climate change. Consequently, credited sinks decrease the need to reduce emissions. We analyse in detail both the economywide and the sectoral effects of inclusion of carbon sinks as agreed upon in Bonn and Marrakesh for the first commitment period of 2008–2012. The focus of our analysis is the special treatment for Canada and Japan that allows them larger sinks. The analysis is performed with the multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-E.New Zealand benefits most from the inclusion of sinks as it gains large carbon sinks from afforestation. Also in Sweden, Canada and Japan the costs of achieving the emission target are considerably reduced. Of these countries, only Canada has high costs without sinks. Thus credited sinks partly reduce the difference in economic burden of achieving the Kyoto target among countries. Even though larger sinks clearly benefit Canada and Japan, their effect on other countries, either on the economywide or on the sectoral level, remains marginal. Allowing larger sinks is, indeed, of relatively minor importance for the world economy and emission reduction, compared to the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.  相似文献   

Braided rivers within an arid alluvial plain (example from the Lower Triassic,western German Basin): recognition criteria and expression of stratigraphic cycles     

S. BOURQUIN  F. GUILLOCHEAU  S. PÉRON 《Sedimentology》2009,56(7):2235-2264

Based on a detailed sedimentological analysis of Lower Triassic continental deposits in the western Germanic sag Basin (i.e. the eastern part of the present‐day Paris Basin: the ‘Conglomérat basal’, ‘Grès vosgien’ and ‘Conglomérat principal’ Formations), three main depositional environments were identified: (i) braided rivers in an arid alluvial plain with some preserved aeolian dunes and very few floodplain deposits; (ii) marginal erg (i.e. braided rivers, aeolian dunes and aeolian sand‐sheets); and (iii) playa lake (an ephemeral lake environment with fluvial and aeolian sediments). Most of the time, aeolian deposits in arid environments that are dominated by fluvial systems are poorly preserved and particular attention should be paid to any sedimentological marker of aridity, such as wind‐worn pebbles (ventifacts), sand‐drift surfaces and aeolian sand‐sheets. In such arid continental environments, stratigraphic surfaces of allocyclic origin correspond to bounding surfaces of regional extension. Elementary stratigraphic cycles, i.e. the genetic units, have been identified for the three main continental environments: the fluvial type, fluvial–aeolian type and fluvial/playa lake type. At the time scale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years, these high‐frequency cycles of climatic origin are controlled either by the groundwater level in the basin or by the fluvial siliciclastic sediment input supplied from the highland. Lower Triassic deposits from the Germanic Basin are preserved mostly in endoreic basins. The central part of the basin is arid but the rivers are supplied with water by precipitation falling on the remnants of the Hercynian (Variscan)–Appalachian Mountains. Consequently, a detailed study of alluvial plain facies provides indications of local climatic conditions in the place of deposition, whereas fluvial systems only reflect climatic conditions of the upstream erosional catchments.  相似文献